As Gaza Deaths Mount and Soldiers Burn Out, an Israeli Anti-war Movement Is a Matter of Time.
Yair Golan's remark about the government "killing babies as a hobby" wasn't made in a vacuum. On top of the fears about widespread starvation in Gaza, the main concern is the number of civilians being killed, most of them in airstrikes.
Between March 18, when Israel resumed the war, and Thursday morning, the Palestinian Health Ministry reported 3,509 people killed by Israeli forces. The Hamas-controlled ministry doesn't say how many of the dead belong to the organization, but even the most optimistic IDF estimates only talk about a few hundred Hamas people killed in the past two months.
Not only has the number of daily fatalities climbed, even compared with the start of the ground operation toward the end of 2023, so has the conjectured ratio of civilians to terrorists killed.
Israeli soldiers in Gaza in a photo released Friday.Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
The military rejects allegations of a further easing of its directives regarding the risk of killing civilians in airstrikes and assassinations. But this is what is happening.
Senior officers provide two possible interconnected explanations: a change in the atmosphere against the backdrop of preparations to try to finally vanquish Hamas, and mainly a change on the battlefield. After more than a year and a half of fighting, the rules probably aren't being followed as thoroughly.
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Also, many bombing runs are actually assassination attempts against Hamas leaders, often when they're with their families. And these officials no longer live in private houses or apartment buildings, they're usually in the crowded tent camps with thousands of civilians. Even when the army declares multiple steps of caution, these attacks result in massive killing.
Golan's criticism is echoed in the IDF, especially among air force reservists, as Itay Mashiach and Ran Shimoni spelled out in Haaretz a month ago. But this isn't being translated into declared refusal.
Rather, it's burnout among combat troops and at brigade headquarters, whether it's reservists or not. Roy Sharon of the Kan public broadcaster reported this week about two battalions in the Nahal infantry brigade where soldiers were tried because they asked not to be sent to Gaza.
A protest against the Netanyahu government in Tel Aviv Thursday night.Credit: Moti Milrod
This phenomenon is more common among reservists, but commanders there usually prefer to avoid confrontations. It's no longer possible to ignore the shock waves that such a long call-up of reservists is generating – from an increasing number of suicides (which the army doesn't report) to families that are breaking up and businesses that are collapsing. The government conveniently ignores these developments and scatters promises of victory instead.
There's also the widening rift about the war's goals and the frustration about the neglect of the hostages. When we have a government relying on ultra-Orthodox lawmakers to extend the issuing of emergency call-up orders, and the army reports the minuscule number of ultra-Orthodox young men drafted, the creation of a new Four Mothers movement – which formed in 1997 when the army was still in southern Lebanon – seems only a matter of time.
Nukes and legacies
One statement at Benjamin Netanyahu's press conference Wednesday drew attention only in the foreign media. The prime minister said Israel would welcome an American agreement that denies Tehran the ability to enrich uranium, though Israel reserves the right to self-defense.
Unlike other parts of his speech, Netanyahu's remarks here seem to have been crafted meticulously. They came amid a new wave of reports on Israeli preparations for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
On Wednesday, CNN quoted U.S. sources as saying the Americans had new intelligence on Israeli deployments for an attack, which could happen during a dispute with the Trump administration.
Eyal Hulata, a former Israeli national security adviser. "Tehran is exposed," he says.Credit: Mazen Mahdi/AFP
In the administration's statements this week, against the backdrop of the talks with Iran, Donald Trump insisted that the Iranians be denied the right to enrich uranium. But officials close to the president, including special envoy Steve Witkoff, have been zigzagging between intransigence against enrichment and consent to low-level enrichment for civilian purposes. So it's hard to get a read on how the talks are advancing.
There are two main motives behind Tehran's emerging readiness to strike a deal, albeit on terms it perceives acceptable. The first is fear of Trump's reaction – he's considered unpredictable and even dangerous for the regime's survival. (The Iranians were less worried about Barack Obama and Joe Biden.)
The second motive is the grim Iranian economy, especially the crumbling civilian infrastructure – including serious problems of energy supply – which very much requires the lifting of the international sanctions.
Back in Israel, on the few occasions when cabinet members refer to the Iran talks, they usually employ general threats, along with a promise to prevent Iran from making nuclear weapons.
The real considerations are more complex, involving fears that the deal struck by Trump will allow the Iranians to make the nuclear leap down the line, amid the understanding that Iran's standing in the region seriously eroded when Israel battered Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Alawite regime fell in Syria.
There's also an operational consideration, which was mentioned in an article a month ago by former air force chief Amir Eshel and a former national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank. Their piece, "Tehran Is Exposed," mainly explores the achievements of Israel's air force, which in two attacks in April and October 2024 destroyed most of the Iranians' strategic air defense.
And there's another question, relating as usual to Netanyahu, Mr. Forever War. The prime minister has an interest in extending the war – more precisely, the wars – to enable his political survival, but the deeper question is about his legacy.
On this matter, as could be gleaned at his press conference, Netanyahu believes he's at a historic juncture, Herzl at the corner of Ben-Gurion. The question, as usual, is what Trump will think about this.